One of my favorite quotes is from Maggie Hassan: "Any budget that relies on the votes of one political party will fail to meet the expectations of our citizens and the needs of the economy". I am going to take some artistic license, and substitute impeachment for budget
Andrew Johnson was the 1st president to get impeached. He was a democrat from Tn. And he wanted, like Lincoln, to extend an olive branch to the southern states which was contrary to the republican controlled Congress. The vote to impeach, in 1868, was 126 to 47 of which 122 were republican and only 4 were democrats. At this time, none of the 11 confederate states had representation in Congress. The proceedings were for violating the Tenure in office Act which many said was unconstitutional, but was repealed prior to its day in the Supreme Court. In the Senate trial, the vote was 35 to 19 to convict. It fell shot by 1 vote; 35 of 45 republicans voted to convict while 9 democrats and 10 republicans did not. This was clearly partisan and in retrospect, Johnson was not guilty.
Next, Bill Clinton was impeached for lying under oath and obstruction of justice. Once again, impeachment was primarily a partisan vote with over 220 republicans and 5 democrats voting for impeachment. Only 45 republican Senators voted guilty. Eight republican Senators voted not guilty. This was clearly politics, and republicans lost the house in the next election.
Fast forward to Donald Trump who was impeached in the house, once again on party lines with 229 voting for impeachment and 198 against for Abuse of power and obstruction of justice. It should be clear to all that this will go nowhere in the Senate and it was once again, primarily, along party lines
The only president who could’ve been impeached, and it have had bi-partisan support, was Richard Nixon. After being informed by Senate minority leader, R-Barry Goldwater, that he only had, at most, 15 Senators who would vote not guilty during the trial, and overwhelming bi-partisan support in the House to impeach, Nixon resigned.
To me the lesson is obvious. If there is only one party that is for impeachment, then it’s politics and not the rule of law. At this time I predict the GOP will win the House in November.
Why, you may ask is a political blog on an economics website? Simple, if democrats end up controlling both houses and the executive come 2021, I would be buying defensive stocks, treasuries and precious metals because I will predict a recession.