This month's blog is a potpourri of unintended consequences. Answer this question. As a result of booming gun sales (pun intended), did the amount of gun related crimes increase? Read on.
In 1974, the Supreme Court in its Roe v. Wade landmark decision, legalized abortion, did this have the unintended consequence of lowering the US crime rate, and keeping it low 18 years later. Let’s first look at the statistics. Violent crime in America and the murder rate (charts below), increased in the 1970’s and then peaked in the 1980’s. Many researchers, myself included, attribute this in part, to the war on drugs, and accompanying violence between the various drug/street gangs. However, beginning in 1992, violent crime and murders started to decline and continued to decline into the next decade. What Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner reasoned in their book Freakonomics, is that this decrease in crime, is attributable to the Roe v. Wade decision. The great majority of abortions, 70%, are performed on women who are from a lower socioeconomic class who tend to be uneducated, unmarried and poor, which also happens to be the typical demographic of a criminal, particularly a career criminal. African Americans make up 14% of the population in the United States yet account for 35% of all abortions, and compared to non-hispanic whites, have a lower education rate and lower average yearly income.
In 1974, the Supreme Court in its Roe v. Wade landmark decision, legalized abortion, did this have the unintended consequence of lowering the US crime rate, and keeping it low 18 years later. Let’s first look at the statistics. Violent crime in America and the murder rate (charts below), increased in the 1970’s and then peaked in the 1980’s. Many researchers, myself included, attribute this in part, to the war on drugs, and accompanying violence between the various drug/street gangs. However, beginning in 1992, violent crime and murders started to decline and continued to decline into the next decade. What Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner reasoned in their book Freakonomics, is that this decrease in crime, is attributable to the Roe v. Wade decision. The great majority of abortions, 70%, are performed on women who are from a lower socioeconomic class who tend to be uneducated, unmarried and poor, which also happens to be the typical demographic of a criminal, particularly a career criminal. African Americans make up 14% of the population in the United States yet account for 35% of all abortions, and compared to non-hispanic whites, have a lower education rate and lower average yearly income.
However criminologists and economists also attribute a number of other reasons for the declining crime rate. Rick Nevins, an economist from the University of Virginia found a relationship between lead use in the United States and violent crime. He reasoned that as a result of the ban on lead paint and leaded gasoline, there is less brain damage and as a result less crime.
But wait there’s more. Then New York, Mayor, Rudi Guliani, took credit for the decreased crime rate in the 90’s by stating he increased the Police Department’s budget and put more cops on the street. However, in the very same period, violent crime decreased in Los Angeles and because of cutbacks, there were less cops on the street.
Other reasons relating to the police include the enhanced use of surveillance cameras and the increase in technology, such as DNA, computer tracking of crime and data bases. It is estimated that the average person is picked up by a surveillance camera 12 to 15 times/day.
But wait there’s more. Then New York, Mayor, Rudi Guliani, took credit for the decreased crime rate in the 90’s by stating he increased the Police Department’s budget and put more cops on the street. However, in the very same period, violent crime decreased in Los Angeles and because of cutbacks, there were less cops on the street.
Other reasons relating to the police include the enhanced use of surveillance cameras and the increase in technology, such as DNA, computer tracking of crime and data bases. It is estimated that the average person is picked up by a surveillance camera 12 to 15 times/day.
However there are more reasons, one in particular is the “graying of America”. As the 76 million baby boomers age (the next generation was only 45 million), the average age in the United States is 37.6 compared to 32.8 in 1990 and 28 in 1970. As you can see by the chart below, the amount of crime committed, diminishes by age.
Proponents of the death penalty will show the relation between the increased use of the death penalty and the accompanying decrease in homicides (authors note: as a result of the Supreme Court case of Furman v Georgia, they was a temporary moratorium on the death penalty from 1970 to 1977).
Whatever the reason, and I suspect there is no one reason but multiple reasons, the crime rate has decreased, and it appears the trend will continue
Whatever the reason, and I suspect there is no one reason but multiple reasons, the crime rate has decreased, and it appears the trend will continue
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