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California and Mandatory Solar Panels

7/30/2018

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​  To paraphrase Tom Cruise from the movie, A Few Good Men, I don’t know if it ranks amongst the most Galactically Stupid pieces of Legislation, but it should be considered.  California has implemented a law that will require all new homeowners, to take effect in 2 years, to install solar panels on their newly constructed homes.  The California Utilities Commission estimates that it will add $12,000 to the price of a new home and it will shave an average of $40/month off of the average electric bill.  This will, inhibit the housing industry in California and obviously raise price when there is already a shortage of low cost housing in California.  State officials and clean-energy advocates, stated that the extra cost to home buyers will be more than made up in lower energy bills.  I will disagree and can’t help but wonder if any one did the math?  A $12,000 cost, divided by $40/month savings equals 300 months until breakeven, or 25 years.  That’s correct, a 25 year breakeven.  In the businesses I’ve owned, whenever I made a capital investment, I’m looking for a much quicker ROI, 1-5 years depending on the investment.  In a recent study by the National Association of Realtors, has increased from 6-9 years in 2016.  According to the study, the reason for this was the crash in home prices that took many potential sellers off the market.  It is estimated that in the next 10 years, this may revert to 6-7 years as equity in homes, and prices, increase.  To sum quickly, it’s a poor investment since I don’t believe the solar panels on a home will cover their cost when the house is sold.  In addition, California already has amongst the highest electric rates in the US and this will exacerbate that cost (Chart).  Also keep a mind, the estimated useful life of a solar panel is 25-30 years.  It is a terrible investment.

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​Some facts about photo voltaic panels that environmentalist keep to themselves.  Within the 1st 6 months, they will lose 15% of their generation capacity; i.e., under peak circumstances, a June/July day with no clouds you will only generate 85% of capacity.  In other words, if you have a typical 5 kilowatt system, the most that can be generated is 4,250 watts.  In the winter, with shorter days and the sun lower in the sky (not to mention more clouds and snow on the panels), you can plan on generating about 25-33% of what you generate in the summer.  Also, the solar cells within a panel are connected in series.  Therefore, if one of the cells is partially blocked in the panel (e.g., by a leaf), the panel loses 95% of its generating capacity.  Think Christmas tree lights, one goes out, they all go out.
  Lastly it is not totally clean energy.  According to environmental progress.org, 
• “Solar panels create 300 times more toxic waste per unit of energy than do nuclear power plants.
• If solar and nuclear produce the same amount of electricity over the next 25 years that nuclear produced in 2016, and the wastes are stacked on football fields, the nuclear waste would reach the height of the Leaning Tower of Pisa (52 meters), while the solar waste would reach the height of two Mt. Everests (16 km). 
In countries like China, India, and Ghana, communities living near e-waste dumps often burn the waste in order to salvage the valuable copper wires for resale. Since this process requires burning off the plastic, the resulting smoke contains toxic fumes that are carcinogenic and teratogenic (birth defect-causing) when inhaled.

  Once again, California appears to suffer from mental myopia, but at least they are consistent.
   

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    John Tommasi is a retired Senior Lecturer of Economics & Finance from Bentley University and  the University of New Hampshire.

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